Peer Prediction for Peer Review: Designing a Marketplace for Ideas

The paper describes a potential platform to facilitate academic peer review with emphasis on early-stage research. This platform aims to make peer review more accurate and timely by rewarding reviewers on the basis of peer prediction algorithms. The algorithm uses a variation of Peer Truth Serum for Crowdsourcing (Radanovic et al., 2016) with human raters competing against a machine learning benchmark. We explain how our approach addresses two large productive inefficiencies in science: mismatch between research questions and publication bias. Better peer review for early research creates additional incentives for sharing it, which simplifies matching ideas to teams and makes negative results and p-hacking more visible

Essays on Human Capital Formation in Developing Countries

Differences in human capital explain approximately one-half of the productivity variation across countries. Therefore, we need to understand drivers of human capital accumulation in order to design successful development policies. My dissertation studies formation and use of human capital with emphasis on its less tangible forms, including skills, abilities and know-how. The first chapter of my dissertation explores the effects of occupational and educational barriers on human capital stock and aggregate productivity. I find that students\u27 academic skills have very small impact on occupational choice in most developing countries. This finding suggests a higher incidence of occupational barriers in developing countries. I evaluate the productivity losses resulting from occupational barriers by calibrating a general equilibrium model of occupational choice. According to my estimation, developing countries can increase their GDP by up to twenty percent by reducing the barriers to the level of a benchmark country (US). In the second chapter of my dissertation, I study the effects of economic growth on education quality. Several models of human capital accumulation predict that incomes have a positive causal effect on human capital for given levels of education by increasing the consumption of educational goods. The paper tests this prediction by using a within country variation in incomes per-capita across different cohorts of US immigrants. Wages of US migrants conditional on years of education serve as a measure of education quality. I find that average domestic incomes experienced by migrants in age from zero to twenty years have a significant positive effect on their future earnings in the US. The third chapter studies the effects of employee-driven technology spillovers on technology adoption. It challenges the theoretical result of Franco and Filson (2006) by assuming that workers are risk averse and that the number of competitors is finite. In this more realistic scenario spillovers significantly reduce payoffs from adopting advanced technologies

Spontaneous rearrangements in RNA sequences

AbstractThe ability of RNAs to spontaneously rearrange their sequences under physiological conditions is demonstrated using the molecular colony technique, which allows single RNA molecules to be detected provided that they are amplifiable by the replicase of bacteriophage Qβ. The rearrangements are Mg2+-dependent, sequence-non-specific, and occur both in trans and in cis at a rate of 10−9 h−1 per site. The results suggest that the mechanism of spontaneous RNA rearrangements differs from the transesterification reactions earlier observed in the presence of Qβ replicase, and have a number of biologically important implications

Impact database application for natural and technological risk management

International audienceImpact database development and application for risk analysis and management promote the usage of self-learning computer systems with elements of artificial intelligence. Such system learning could be successful when the databases store the complete information about each event, parameters of the simulation models, the range of its application, and residual errors. Each new description included in the database could increase the reliability of the results obtained with application of simulation models. The calibration of mathematical models is the first step to self-learning of automated systems. The article describes the events' database structure and examples of calibrated computer models as applied to the impact of expected emergencies and risk indicator assessment. Examples of database statistics usage in order to rank the subjects of the Russian Federation by the frequency of emergencies of different character as well as risk indicators are given

Calibration Of Regional Vulnerability Functions By Applying Earthquake Events Database

The paper describes the structure and content of the Information System database containing information on earthquake events, which is developed and supported within the framework of computer support for the EMERCOM of the Russian Federation. The database is assigned to provide analytical support for decision making in case of an emergency situation, including tools for mathematical simulation of hazardous excitation, the response of elements at risk to excitation and loss generation. The calibration procedure of the earthquake vulnerability functions for buildings and structures using the database with descriptions of events is presented. The calibrated functions of earthquake vulnerability for buildings of different types are applied to provide an acceptable accuracy of situational assessments for the case of a strong earthquake. The examples of earthquake damage estimations for the test site in Siberia showed that region-specific parameters in the vulnerability functions yield more reliable results to estimate possible damage and losses due to a large earthquake. For Irkutsk City, the estimates of the numbers of heavily damaged and completely collapsed buildings obtained when using different sets of parameters for vulnerability functions differ by 30%. Such difference in damage estimates can significantly affect the plans for rescue and recovery operations. The conclusion is made about the advantage of the calibrated functions application for near real-time damage and loss assessment due to strong earthquakes in order to ensure population safety and territory sustainable development

Permafrost-Landscape Map of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) on a Scale 1:1,500,000

The history of permafrost landscape map compilation is related to the study of ecological problems with permafrost. Permafrost-landscape studies are now widely used in geocryological mapping. Permafrost-landscape classifications and mapping are necessary for studying the trends in development of the natural environment in northern and high-altitude permafrost regions. The cryogenic factor in the permafrost zone plays a leading role in the differentiation of landscapes, so it must be considered during classification construction. In this study, a map’s special content was developed using publications about Yakutian nature, archive sources from academic institutes, the interpretation of satellite images, and special field studies. Overlays of 20 types of terrain, identified by geological and geomorphological features, and 36 types of plant groupings, allowed the systematization of permafrost temperature and active layer thickness in 145 landscape units with relatively homogeneous permafrost-landscape conditions in the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic. This map serves as a basis for applied thematic maps related to the assessment and forecast of permafrost changes during climate warming and anthropogenic impacts